How the Risk Atlas score is built
Model version 1, published 2026-10-11, 60 indicators from 25 publishers. Download the model as JSON.
From a raw figure to a score
- Each indicator's latest actual value (never a projection) is ranked against every country that reports it. The score is the percentile: 0 for the least risky country, 100 for the most. When a higher value means less risk, the percentile is flipped. An indicator is scored only when at least 20 countries report it.
- A pillar is the weighted mean of its indicator scores, using the indicator weights.
- The composite is the weighted mean of the pillars that have at least one input, using the pillar weights rescaled over those pillars. A country is scored once it has at least 6 inputs across 3 pillars.
- Floor: when Political stability and absence of violence is at or below -2, the composite reads at least 80. Political stability at war-zone levels keeps the composite from reading low.
- Indicators with weight 0 are shown on country pages but never blended into the score.
- Freshness: data more than 400 days past its period is marked aging, more than 730 days stale. A pillar where more than half the weight is stale is shown as low confidence.
Example: intentional homicides per 100,000 people. If a country has more homicides than 140 of 180 reporting countries, its percentile is 78, and because more homicides means more risk, its score is 78. For real GDP growth, where higher means less risk, the same rank gives 22.
Pillar weights
| Pillar | Weight | Indicators |
|---|---|---|
| Political | 22% | 3 |
| Macro-financial | 22% | 9 |
| Regulatory | 14% | 10 |
| Security | 18% | 9 |
| Climate | 8% | 2 |
| Society | 8% | 8 |
| Technology and AI | 8% | 5 |
Every indicator
| Indicator | Pillar | Weight | Higher means | Source | Terms |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orange and red disaster alerts, last 365 days count | Climate | 1.0 | more risk | GDACS (UN, European Commission) | Free reuse with attribution |
| ND-GAIN climate readiness and vulnerability score | Climate | 1.0 | less risk | University of Notre Dame | Free reuse with attribution |
| Real GDP growth, current year % | Macro-financial | 1.0 | less risk | IMF | IMF terms, free reuse with attribution |
| Inflation, current year % | Macro-financial | 1.0 | more risk | IMF | IMF terms, free reuse with attribution |
| General government gross debt % of GDP | Macro-financial | 1.0 | more risk | IMF | IMF terms, free reuse with attribution |
| Current account balance % of GDP | Macro-financial | 0.7 | less risk | IMF | IMF terms, free reuse with attribution |
| Reserves in months of imports months | Macro-financial | 0.7 | less risk | World Bank | CC BY 4.0 |
| External debt stocks % of GNI | Macro-financial | 0.7 | more risk | World Bank | CC BY 4.0 |
| Central bank policy rate % | Macro-financial | 0.5 | more risk | Bank for International Settlements | BIS terms, free reuse with attribution |
| Tax revenue % of GDP | Macro-financial | 0.5 | less risk | World Bank | CC BY 4.0 |
| Trade openness (exports plus imports) % of GDP | Macro-financial | 0.4 | less risk | World Bank | CC BY 4.0 |
| Political stability and absence of violence estimate | Political | 1.5 | less risk | World Bank | CC BY 4.0 |
| Voice and accountability estimate | Political | 1.0 | less risk | World Bank | CC BY 4.0 |
| Government effectiveness estimate | Political | 1.0 | less risk | World Bank | CC BY 4.0 |
| World Press Freedom Index (display only) score | Political | display only | less risk | Reporters Without Borders | Reuse with credit, display only |
| Liberal democracy index (display only) index | Political | display only | less risk | V-Dem Institute | CC BY-SA 4.0, display only |
| FATF status (2 black list, 1 grey list, 0 none) status | Regulatory | 1.2 | more risk | Financial Action Task Force | Public statements, reuse with attribution |
| Regulatory quality estimate | Regulatory | 1.0 | less risk | World Bank | CC BY 4.0 |
| Rule of law estimate | Regulatory | 1.0 | less risk | World Bank | CC BY 4.0 |
| Control of corruption estimate | Regulatory | 1.0 | less risk | World Bank | CC BY 4.0 |
| OFAC-listed entities with an address in the country count | Regulatory | 0.8 | more risk | US Treasury OFAC | US government work, public domain |
| UN-sanctioned individuals and entities linked to the country count | Regulatory | 0.8 | more risk | United Nations | UN terms, free reuse with attribution |
| Tariff rate, applied, weighted mean % | Regulatory | 0.8 | more risk | World Bank | CC BY 4.0 |
| US tariff, sanction and export-control actions naming it, 90 days count | Regulatory | 0.8 | more risk | US Federal Register | US government work, public domain |
| Informal employment (grey economy) % of non-agricultural employment | Regulatory | 0.6 | more risk | World Bank | CC BY 4.0 |
| On the EU non-cooperative tax list (1 yes) flag | Regulatory | 0.6 | more risk | Council of the EU | Public, reuse with attribution |
| Corruption Perceptions Index (display only) score | Regulatory | display only | less risk | Transparency International | CC BY-ND 4.0, display only |
| Money laundering risk (display only) 0 to 10 | Regulatory | display only | more risk | Basel Institute on Governance | Free with registration, display only |
| Battle-related deaths (UCDP) people | Security | 1.5 | more risk | World Bank | CC BY 4.0 |
| Refugees and asylum seekers by country of origin people | Security | 1.0 | more risk | UNHCR | CC BY 4.0 |
| Intentional homicides (organised crime proxy) per 100,000 | Security | 1.0 | more risk | World Bank | CC BY 4.0 |
| Organised criminality score 1 to 10 | Security | 1.0 | more risk | Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime | Free reuse with attribution |
| Internet outage events, last 90 days count | Security | 0.8 | more risk | IODA, Georgia Tech | Free for research and reuse with attribution |
| Military expenditure % of GDP | Security | 0.6 | more risk | World Bank | CC BY 4.0 |
| Cybersecurity commitment, ITU tier (1 strongest, 5 weakest) tier | Security | 0.6 | more risk | International Telecommunication Union | Free reuse with attribution |
| Named in US cybersecurity advisories, 90 days count | Security | 0.5 | more risk | US CISA | US government work, public domain |
| Named in disinformation case reporting, 90 days count | Security | 0.4 | more risk | EUvsDisinfo (EEAS East StratCom) | Headlines and links |
| Military expenditure (display only) US dollars | Security | display only | less risk | World Bank | CC BY 4.0 |
| Deaths in state-based armed conflict (UCDP) people | Security | display only | more risk | Uppsala Conflict Data Program | CC BY 4.0, cite UCDP |
| Deaths in non-state conflict (UCDP) people | Security | display only | more risk | Uppsala Conflict Data Program | CC BY 4.0, cite UCDP |
| Civilians killed in one-sided violence (UCDP) people | Security | display only | more risk | Uppsala Conflict Data Program | CC BY 4.0, cite UCDP |
| Active state-based armed conflicts located in the country (UCDP/PRIO) count | Security | display only | more risk | Uppsala Conflict Data Program | CC BY 4.0, cite UCDP |
| Defence expenditure, NATO estimate (display only) % of GDP | Security | display only | less risk | NATO | NATO public release, reuse with attribution (to confirm) |
| Under-5 mortality (UN IGME, with UNICEF) per 1,000 | Society | 1.0 | more risk | World Bank | CC BY 4.0 |
| Youth unemployment (unrest driver) % of labour force 15 to 24 | Society | 1.0 | more risk | World Bank | CC BY 4.0 |
| Life expectancy at birth years | Society | 0.8 | less risk | World Bank | CC BY 4.0 |
| Income inequality, Gini index | Society | 0.7 | more risk | World Bank | CC BY 4.0 |
| Health spending % of GDP | Society | 0.6 | less risk | World Bank | CC BY 4.0 |
| Physicians per 1,000 people | Society | 0.6 | less risk | World Bank | CC BY 4.0 |
| Secondary school enrolment % gross | Society | 0.6 | less risk | World Bank | CC BY 4.0 |
| Education spending % of GDP | Society | 0.5 | less risk | World Bank | CC BY 4.0 |
| Population (display only) people | Society | display only | less risk | World Bank | CC BY 4.0 |
| Universal health coverage index (display only) index | Society | display only | less risk | World Health Organization | CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO, display only |
| Research and development spending % of GDP | Technology and AI | 1.0 | less risk | World Bank | CC BY 4.0 |
| Internet users % of population | Technology and AI | 0.8 | less risk | World Bank | CC BY 4.0 |
| National AI strategy and AI law maturity (0 none to 3 law in force) 0 to 3 | Technology and AI | 0.8 | less risk | Tamarly, from OECD.AI and official sources | Tamarly-maintained file |
| High-technology exports % of manufactured exports | Technology and AI | 0.7 | less risk | World Bank | CC BY 4.0 |
| Operational satellites operated count | Technology and AI | 0.5 | less risk | Tamarly, from the UCS Satellite Database | Free reuse with attribution |
| Mobile subscriptions (display only) per 100 people | Technology and AI | display only | less risk | World Bank | CC BY 4.0 |
| Fixed broadband subscriptions (display only) per 100 people | Technology and AI | display only | less risk | World Bank | CC BY 4.0 |
Changes
- Version 1, 2026-10-11: First published version: the weights in use since Risk Atlas v2 (5 October 2026).
The Risk Atlas describes conditions; it does not recommend investments.
Research from public records, not investment advice. Tamarly holds no investment positions. By reading these pages you accept the Terms of Use; figures can be late or wrong, so check the linked source before relying on one. Terms and policies.